Eva Plaganyi-Lloyd

CSIRO (Australia)
Dr. Eva Plaganyi-Lloyd is Senior Research Scientist at CSIRO CMAR (Australia). She leads research on the development of models to support the sustainable management of marine systems. She maintains an international reputation in stock assessment modeling, ecosystem modeling and management strategy evaluation. Her research interests focus on the biological modeling of marine and other renewable biological resources, and on the application of quantitative approaches to addressing general ecological questions. She has 15 years experience in the field of quantitative fisheries stock assessment, where her work focuses on developing an ecosystem approach to fisheries that ensures the sustainability and welfare of the entire ecosystem impacted by fishing activities.
Methods to model and manage risk in marine natural systems
Marine natural systems are increasingly at risk due to overfishing, climate change and anthropogenic activities. Decision support methods are needed to support biological, economic and social sustainability of stocks and dependent users. This talk provides examples of a range of decision support tools being used in Australia: from ecosystem models, management strategy evaluation (MSE) to marine pest management algorithms. First, I present examples of quantitative methods being used to reduce the risks of overfishing commercially valuable lobsters and prawns, including accounting for additional risks due to extreme weather events. An increasingly complex approach is needed to evaluate the cumulative potential risks to a prawn fishery of anthropogenic water extraction. Banana prawns rely on freshwater flows to connect estuarine juvenile recruitment and offshore adult spawning grounds. The risks to economically-valuable fisheries and other ecosystem components are being evaluated using a MICE (Model of Intermediate Complexity for ecosystem assessments). A MICE is also being used on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to inform on ways to manually cull crown of thorns starfish (COTS) in a way that minimises the risk of further declines in coral cover. This last example combines a suite of decision support tools at different scales as part of an integrated marine pest management program focused on reducing major risks to the GBR. No single quantitative method is optimal under all situations and hence this talk focuses on an overview of contemporary approaches being applied to natural systems at risk, from simple to complex.