Mathematical modeling and analysis of epidemics control


Communicable and infectious diseases constitute one of the leading causes of illness and death throughout the world. The diversity of infection agents (viruses, bacteria, microbes, etc.) combined with their ability to evolve and adapt to changing host populations, environments, practices, and technologies creates ongoing threats to human health and appeals for more sophisticated policies for disease prevention and control. Our research in this area combines various advanced mathematical tools (dynamical systems, optimal control, viability theory) with the experience and skills of economists, statisticians, medical doctors, and healthcare managers to propose meaningful mathematical models and to develop new methods for control of communicable and infectious diseases. This scientific cooperation focuses in three main topics: (i) Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the nonlinear dynamics describing the evolution of communicable or infectious diseases; (ii) Viability theory techniques for computing sustainable objectives for the control of communicable or infectious diseases; (iii) Optimization and cost-effectiveness approach for decision-making aimed at prevention, reduction, and treatment of communicable or infectious diseases.

See our technical reports about COVID-19 in Chile and our visualization website with key indicators.

Researchers AM2V: Pablo AguirrePedro GajardoCristopher Hermosilla, Rodrigo Lecaros, Felipe Osorio.

Chilean collaborators: Ximena Aguilera (CEPS-UDD), Carla Castillo (CEPS-UDD), Isabel Matute (CEPS-UDD), Manuel Nájera (Fundación Arturo López Pérez), Héctor Ramírez (U. Chile).

International collaborators: Edwin Barrios (Universidad del Valle, Colombia), Olga Vasilieva (Universidad del Valle, Colombia).